Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Is Already In, Next Bull Run Expected By August, 2019
Bitcoin (BTC) has already bottomed out and is now preparing to consolidate before its next move up. This means that all those investors and analysts waiting for the price to retrace to $2,000 or lower are in for a big surprise. Bitcoin (BTC) capitulated during the previous bear market in Jan, 2015. This time it capitulated in Dec, 2018. Both of these times the monthly RSI fell to the horizontal support and did not fall below it. As we can see on the monthly chart for BTC/USD, the price has now formed its first green candle for the month of January after a long time. This is exactly what we saw after the capitulation in Jan, 2015.
As time goes by, it becomes clearer as to what Bitcoin (BTC) is actually doing. A few months back, most people in this space had no idea what pattern Bitcoin (BTC) was repeating. Now, most of us can clearly see that it is the pattern of the 2014-15 bear market. Of course, we cannot expect the pattern to repeat every candle the same way as before but in the big picture all of it has to line up. The price could behave independently of the big picture or even the influence of other markets short term but long term there is a strong trend that is not easy to break. Now, the majority of us might be convinced that the price is following the 2014-15 bear market pattern but there are still a lot of differences regarding the stage of that cycle we are at.
Put simply, there are two types of opinions regarding the part of the 2014-15 cycle BTC/USD is currently at. The bullish opinion is that we are at the month after capitulation which corresponds to the green candle of February, 2015. This opinion revolves around the thinking that we are in the clear and Bitcoin (BTC) has been through the worst. The price has now capitulated and we should see a climb towards the previous market structure in the weeks ahead. Now, the bearish opinion differs from the bullish opinion as it believes we are at the candle just after the fall below the 21 Month EMA. This corresponds to the candle on November, 2014. This bearish view states that the worst is ahead of us and BTC/USD is going to crash hard in the months ahead.
On surface, the bearish view for BTC/USD seems like a pessimistic perspective but actually it is quite the opposite. See, the bullish perspective argues that we have been through the worst but it also argues that we are going to retest market structure and most likely face rejection there. The bearish perspective on the other hand argues that the worst is ahead of us but we are going to retest the 21 Month EMA. If we look at the monthly candle on November, 2014 that is exactly what happened. So, if that were to repeat again, we would see the price retest the 21 Month EMA this time as well before further downside can occur.
A retest of 21 Month EMA at this point would actually see the price trading around $7,000. This is more bullish than the bullish view. So, there is a strong probability at this point that the bottom is in and we are in the clear, but even if we are not, and we assume the bearish case to be true, we are still due for one hell of a ride which means it is one of the best times to get in regardless of the long term outlook.